Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#238
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#314
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#254
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#215
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 3.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 14.0% 29.8% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 40.1% 24.0%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.7% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.2% 12.5% 22.2%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.4% 2.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 7
Quad 32 - 63 - 13
Quad 45 - 38 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 138   @ South Alabama L 64-73 21%    
  Nov 14, 2019 155   @ North Florida L 71-79 24%    
  Nov 19, 2019 35   @ Iowa St. L 61-80 4%    
  Nov 27, 2019 8   Gonzaga L 62-83 3%    
  Dec 04, 2019 242   Tulane W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 07, 2019 207   Southern Illinois W 66-64 55%    
  Dec 14, 2019 155   North Florida L 74-76 44%    
  Dec 16, 2019 13   @ Texas Tech L 54-77 2%    
  Dec 30, 2019 116   Louisiana Tech L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 04, 2020 116   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-72 18%    
  Jan 09, 2020 169   @ UTEP L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 11, 2020 121   @ Texas San Antonio L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 16, 2020 152   North Texas L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 18, 2020 229   Rice W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 23, 2020 140   @ UAB L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 25, 2020 174   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 30, 2020 139   Old Dominion L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 276   Charlotte W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 06, 2020 188   @ Marshall L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 08, 2020 76   @ Western Kentucky L 62-76 12%    
  Feb 13, 2020 163   Florida Atlantic L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 15, 2020 185   Florida International W 80-79 53%    
Projected Record 7 - 15 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 2.1 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.0 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 4.6 0.3 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.3 5.8 1.5 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 5.8 4.0 0.2 11.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.2 0.7 0.0 11.7 12th
13th 1.0 4.3 5.5 1.7 0.0 12.5 13th
14th 1.6 4.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 11.3 14th
Total 1.6 4.9 9.2 13.2 15.4 14.9 13.4 10.5 7.5 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 95.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0
12-2 85.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-3 44.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-4 9.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 31.3% 26.9% 4.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1%
13-1 0.2% 34.1% 23.3% 10.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.0%
12-2 0.5% 21.5% 20.0% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9%
11-3 1.2% 12.7% 11.9% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8%
10-4 2.7% 11.8% 11.5% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.3%
9-5 4.7% 6.0% 6.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
8-6 7.5% 3.1% 3.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.2
7-7 10.5% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
6-8 13.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.3
5-9 14.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8
4-10 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4
3-11 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.2
2-12 9.2% 9.2
1-13 4.9% 4.9
0-14 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%